I am writing this on November 4th. Two days ago, the College Football Playoff Committee, the group that gets to decide which teams get to play in the College Football Playoff, released their first ranking into the world. Naturally, all of twitter freaked out about it.
There’s what, four more of these? This doesn’t matter one bit. There’s been absolute chaos so far this season; why do you think there won’t be more the next few weeks? How many times has the initial College Football Playoff rankings looked like the final one? Zero. The answer is zero.
There’s nothing we don’t know already from these rankings: the Committee loves the SEC and the Big Ten, hates the ACC, and has a love affair with big brands over on-field results. Nothing has changed. The only surprise is that they value Oregon so much; the PAC-12 never gets any respect in these kinds of things. It doesn’t matter anyway, Oregon will lose to Washington State or something in the next couple weeks and will be out in a jiffy.
Everyone just needs to stop being mad about pointless things. Let’s go back to Monday night, when the Pole Assassin’s monkey dominated our lives. We let that one go a bit too fast. Everyone can just ease back, relax, and let the rest of these games sort everything out. It’ll be fine, I promise.
Anyways, on with the show…
Illinois @ Minnesota
If Minnesota starts to run the ball, it’s over. They’re first in the West for that exact reason, and I don’t see that changing this week. Minnesota has used at least five different running backs and the only team that has even come close to shutting them down so far is Bowling Green for some reason.
Illinois, on the other hand, doesn’t have an offense. Their best shot is making Minnesota beat themselves via turnovers and bad penalties, but what are the odds of that happening at home?
They’re low, maybe zero.
PICK: Minnesota
Ohio State @ Nebraska
I mean, Nebraska plays up to their opponents, but they haven’t faced aynone close to Ohio State yet. Oklahoma still had Spencer Rattler under center, and Michigan (even with a very good season so far) doesn’t deserve to be compared to Ohio State yet.
It’s not like Ohio State’s defense is very good; they’re certainly better than they were at the start of the season, but they’re not world beaters. They have issues that noted offensive mastermind Scott Frost can exploit.
Ohio State’s offense, on the other hand, looks more and more like an Ohio State offense every week. Ryan Day has opened up the Dwayne Haskins playbook for CJ Stroud and he has been incredible since sitting a few weeks ago against Akron. Tre Henderson looks every bit the five-star recruit he was, and Wilson and Olave continue to prove themselves as the best wide receivers in the country.
Don’t get it twisted; I don’t expect Nebraska to win or even cover. Ohio State can and should shred them. Nebraska is just very, very weird.
PICK: Ohio State
Michigan State @ Purdue
Purdue is going to try and bottle up Kenneth “My Work Here is Done” Walker, and honestly they might end up being successful. The only team that’s been able to dominate on the ground against them so far this year has been Wisconsin, but both Notre Dame and Illinois were able to find success there when they needed it. Kenneth Walker is the Big Ten’s leading rusher, and if Purdue is going to pull off the upset they need to make Peyton Thorne beat them.
Unfortunately, it’s going to be tough to stop Kenneth Walker. His fewest yards in a game so far this year was 57 against Youngstown State, but he ran for 8.1 YPC and scored. He’s only really been bottled up twice this year, against Nebraska and Indiana. Did it matter? Not at all, and it probably wouldn’t matter this week either.
Purdue has upset countless teams before; they just beat #2 Iowa a couple weeks ago after all. But this feels different. Michigan State feels like they are playing with a confidence that we only really see from those teams that have dominated their opponents for years; Ohio State and Alabama are really the only teams I can think of like this. It doesn’t matter what mistakes they make, or if something gets taken away from them, or even if they just plain stink: no matter what, they are going to find a way to win.
PICK: Michigan State
Wisconsin @ Rutgers
Wisconsin has the best run defense in the country. That’s really it. Rutgers isn’t going to do a damn thing on offense this week. But you know what Rutgers can do? Force turnovers. For Rutgers to have a snowflake’s chance in Hell this week they are going to have to give their offense the shortest fields possible and pray to whichever God they believe in that they can force a couple turnovers and make Graham Mertz beat them.
If you force Wisconsin to put the ball in the hands of Graham Mertz, you are going to have an extremely good time. The turnover goblin that is Iowa couldn’t even do that. On top of that, the Badgers are downright awful in the red zone. If by chance Rutgers can’t generate turnovers, they might get lucky and Wisconsin might just kick themselves in the nuts repeatedly.
PICK: Wisconsin
Penn State @ Maryland
Penn State is good. Maryland is bad. Maryland plays bad against good teams. That is all.
PICK: Penn State
Iowa @ Northwestern
Iowa. Man.
Two weeks ago today, Iowa fans were at everyone’s throats, acting like they were the best team in the country and could go toe-to-toe with anyone. Honestly, I believed them. The defense was obscene and the offense could at least move the ball every so often. They didn’t look unbeatable, but a great defense can carry you a lot of places.
Now? They might end up 5th in the Big Ten West. I have lost all faith in Kirk and Brian Ferentz and strongly believe they should both be gone at the end of the year. It’s been a long time coming, plagued by racist accusations and multiple claims of misconduct. It should be over.
The only reason Iowa is going to win this week is because Northwestern’s offense is somehow worse. Northwestern’s offense belongs in the hospital above Kinnick Stadium instead of on a football field; they are currently 119th in scoring offense. There are 130 teams. I’m surprised Northwestern has won a game at all this year if I’m being frank.
PICK: Iowa
Indiana @ Michigan
Michigan, if you win out you still have a chance at making both the Big Ten Championship and the playoffs. You control your own destiny here; don’t mess it up.
In years past under Jim Harbaugh, one loss in the back-half of the season would compound into another and another. Especially a loss to a rival. Is it a coaching thing? Absolutely. If any team can break that streak though, it’s this Michigan team. The defense is solid, but really, the run game is just dominant. Their offensive line absolutely mauls everyone in their way. Corum and Haskins are maybe the best pair of running backs in the country and haven’t shown any signs of wear or tear so far this season.
Indiana, on the other hand, had the best game of their season last week. They put up 35 points, threw for almost 250 yards with a freshman quarterback, and they limited their turnovers. All that and they still lost.
Maybe Michigan gets caught looking ahead to Penn State next week, or they do what they’ve always done under Harbaugh and combust after a loss. But, they should be able to dominate this week. Save the losing for Happy Valley and Columbus.
PICK: Michigan.